Elon Musk says civilization will crumble if more people don't have more children — and his comments shine light on a heated demographic debate
Hillary Hoffower,Marguerite Ward | Publié le
- Elon Musk recently said the declining birth rate is one of the biggest risks to civilization.
- Experts have worried that the pandemic "baby bust" could result in an ageing population without enough workers.
- But with the right structural changes, less children and higher productivity could be a new chapter for the economy.
In the eyes of the world's richest man, one of the greatest threats to civilization is that people aren't having enough babies.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said at the Wall Street Journal's annual CEO Council that there aren't enough people. "I think one of the biggest risks to civilization is the low birth rate and the rapidly declining birth rate," he said.
He continued: "And yet, so many people, including smart people, think that there are too many people in the world and think that the population is growing out of control. It's completely the opposite. Please look at the numbers — if people don't have more children, civilization is going to crumble, mark my words."
Musk is referring to the pandemic "baby bust." A CDC report from earlier this year found that the US birth rate fell by 4% from 2019 to 2020, the sharpest single-year decline in nearly 50 years and the lowest number of births since 1979.
Declining birth rates during economic downturns are typical , as people tend to put off having kids during periods of political and social unrest. But last year's recession was coupled with a global health crisis, leaving demographers debating whether the current drop will prove to be a temporary or permanent phenomenon: Will women will end up having babies at a later date or have fewer babies overall?
Some, like Musk, aren't hopeful. One demographer deemed the trend a "crisis" in an interview with CBS , while another demographer told CNN the baby bust could have a big impact on economic activity in the future.
But a falling birth rate doesn't have to be a doomsday scenario , and government and corporate leaders can adjust for a world without as many people.
A new economic chapter
Experts worry today's baby bust will result in an economy plagued by an aging population that isn't replaced by enough young workers — a troubling thought when America is already in the middle of what is shaping up to be a permanent labor shortage . That could result in higher government costs and a smaller workforce that would have to front the care costs for aging populations, creating a shortage of pension and social security-type funds.
It's why Musk is concerned that the falling birth rate could signal the end of civilization. But with the right steps, civilization may not be as at risk as Musk thinks.
American birth rates have been declining for six years as millennial women wait to have babies until a later age. In this way, the US is catching up to the rest of the world by falling back to the pack.
It's part of a broader shift among most high-income and some middle-income countries in which women postpone having kids until later ages. That the US is among these countries is a sign of economic progress, Christine Percheski, associate professor of sociology at Northwestern University, previously told Insider . New paths for fulfillment for women have emerged, like building a professional life or traveling.
"It's about women having access to education and employment opportunities," Percheski said. "It's about the rise in individualism. It's about the rise in women's autonomy and a change in values."
Of course, underlying macroeconomic factors are also at play. Millennials have long been facing an affordability crisis, grappling with the lingering effects of the Great Recession and soaring living costs , which has caused them to push off life milestones.
Percheski said the country will likely need to make structural adjustments like creating new policies that accommodate changes in population in size. America can also change now to avoid having to do it later, such as government leaders making childcare more affordable and CEOs providing more workplace flexibility.
"CEOs could start by realizing that work flexibility is a major benefit for employees with young children. Even if good childcare is available, parents need flexibility to deal with children getting sick, doctor's appointments, school events and so on," Matthias Doepke , a highly cited Northwestern economist who published an analysis of the gendered effects of the coronavirus pandemic, told Insider.
Maria Floro , economics professor emerita at American University, agreed.
"Corporations must share, one way or the other, the cost of raising the future labor force," she told Insider. "This means helping to pay the cost of affordable care and implementing work policies that promote pay equity and support healthy work-life balance of women and men."
Via PakApNews