By Doug Faulkner BBC News
- Published
The situation with Covid will get worse before it gets better with cases "rising dramatically", medical leaders have warned.
The Academy of Medical Royal Colleges said people should remain cautious, taking measures such as wearing face coverings in crowded indoor spaces.
It has warned that the NHS is "under unprecedented pressure".
On Monday the government is expected to confirm whether the easing of measures in England will go ahead on 19 July.
The UK is experiencing a marked increase in cases according to the Office for National Statistics, while Health Secretary Sajid Javid has previously said he would expect case numbers to reach about "50,000 new cases a day" by that date.
On Friday the latest government figures showed an increase of 35,707 Covid cases across the UK - the highest daily figure since 22 January.
In a statement the academy, which represents 23 medical bodies responsible for training and development in various specialties, said it was essential that people took a responsible approach when restrictions were formally lifted.
It warned that there was "little doubt that things will get worse before they get better".
The academy said there were reports of routine care being postponed due to healthcare professionals isolating amid mounting pressure as people who had stayed away from the NHS during the pandemic now sought treatment.
It added that the growth of long Covid as well as the backlog of elective work which had built up during the crisis meant that "it is like the worst of a bad winter in July".
"There is no doubt that we will get to a position when this dangerous and erratic disease is largely under control for the population as a whole and we can 'learn to live with' Covid-19.
"However, we are not in that position yet and sadly, we have to expect things to get worse again."
A few hospitals in the UK have announced that non-urgent surgery is being postponed because of rising admissions of Covid patients, very high patient numbers at A&E and staff absences caused by self-isolation requirements.
Now medical leaders suggest this will become more widespread and are predicting that across the NHS things will get worse before they get better.
The sobering message is that this is the situation even after the success of the vaccination programme in reducing the relative levels of hospital admissions and deaths.
In essence the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges, the professional voice of doctors, is saying that the Covid impact will be felt for many more months and right through next winter.
Most Covid rules are set to end in England from 19 July. Announcing the plan, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that if the government did not go ahead with the easing of restrictions now then it ran the risk of "either opening up at a very difficult time when the virus has an edge" or "putting everything off to next year".
The government has previously said it has taken a cautious approach to the roadmap in England, delaying the next step to allow for millions more vaccinations so those most at risk are fully protected.
Among the changes to restrictions that have been announced are:
- Fully vaccinated UK residents arriving in England from amber travel list countries will no longer have to quarantine from 19 July
- Those in England who are double-jabbed will not have to self-isolate if a close contact tests positive for Covid from 16 August
- An end to the Covid "bubble" system in schools which has seen hundreds of thousands of pupils have to self-isolate
- The wearing of face coverings will no longer be legally required and the rule of six inside private homes will be scrapped
- No limits on attendance at weddings and funerals
Meanwhile, a study has found that Covid vaccines are highly effective in people with underlying health conditions who were advised to shield earlier in the pandemic.
Being fully vaccinated reduced the risk of symptomatic Covid-19 by about 90%.
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